Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 19.393533 22.548001 26.345538 31.346514 37.906435 46.445324 58.816215
2025-01-12 14.801151 18.180254 22.622325 29.126514 38.868608 53.828315 80.824980
2025-01-19 12.336828 15.646057 20.231235 27.409630 39.167932 59.554865 103.705053
2025-01-26 12.178517 16.089613 21.894404 31.856233 50.458074 89.658184 209.182977
2025-02-02 11.496879 15.623000 22.051107 33.858630 58.321177 119.560452 390.744219
2025-02-09 10.296006 14.187869 20.400645 32.222340 58.137889 129.939766 544.629644
2025-02-16 9.810308 13.794617 20.386259 33.612521 65.295726 169.581686 1240.765066
2025-02-23 9.221060 13.157300 19.842290 33.803743 69.674786 206.773091 3123.579291
2025-03-02 8.679221 12.536395 19.233343 33.710681 73.315363 248.441504 12859.277739
2025-03-09 8.278215 12.109462 18.916733 34.184888 78.964672 315.488955 NaN
2025-03-16 7.695014 11.317812 17.819414 32.640406 77.502489 336.012088 NaN
2025-03-23 7.324261 10.866480 17.326250 32.444912 80.675913 405.327478 NaN
2025-03-30 6.816087 10.163687 16.325983 30.974814 79.218274 438.644509 NaN
2025-04-06 6.282113 9.382857 15.108209 28.788135 74.319877 425.665623 NaN
2025-04-13 5.847127 8.752563 14.139522 27.100599 70.868566 425.641359 NaN
2025-04-20 6.008895 9.206406 15.400369 31.469820 95.497194 1133.066513 NaN
2025-04-27 5.931294 9.210782 15.729256 33.435576 112.127344 2621.743343 NaN
2025-05-04 5.594338 8.702007 14.898793 31.829309 108.157784 2829.275433 NaN
2025-05-11 5.494485 8.638222 15.037356 33.194028 123.314958 8907.342131 NaN
2025-05-18 5.322093 8.422025 14.812756 33.381708 131.579293 31553.976824 NaN
2025-05-25 5.145059 8.185453 14.519261 33.290371 138.124999 422614.502376 NaN
2025-06-01 5.013438 8.029955 14.397834 33.755763 150.031417 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 4.777953 7.655556 13.734531 32.239774 143.844677 NaN NaN